Home sales are trapped in the "enclosure growth" cycle test

"This is the best era and the worst era; this is the spring of hope and the winter of despair."

Using Dickens's famous saying to describe the current state of living in domestic home stores seems to be appropriate.

In the past “11” promotion activities, the total sales of Red Star Macalline exceeded 4.5 billion yuan, an increase of more than 15% year-on-year. This number has revived the long-lost home market. After experiencing the ups and downs of 2012, the home store is entering a recovery period.

However, the industry believes that the excessively single profit model and the characteristics closely related to the real estate industry will make the home industry's recovery last for a long time.

According to media reports, the Ministry of Housing and Construction and other departments will conduct research on the property market in Chengdu and other places in the near future. The purpose is to collect relevant information and summarize the experiences and lessons of the local authorities. The news made the possibility of real estate regulation and upgrading after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee more likely.

Home industry recovery?

The China National Building Materials Circulation Association released the August National Building Materials Household Climate Index (BHI), which showed that the index has risen for the first time this year, indicating the warmth of real estate just after release.

In fact, since the end of last year, real estate developers have re-emerged in geothermal heat, and the “land kings” that have been seen for a long time are everywhere. The home industry is often lagging behind the property market for about 10 months due to the characteristics of home improvement.

However, it is undeniable that the rapid growth of sales in large-scale home stores in recent years is not unrelated to their staking and expansion.

According to statistics, even in the downturn of the industry in 2012, there are still many home stores in the country competing to open. According to media reports, only in the last year or so, the sixth space, Dongguan Furniture City, Iset, East China (International) Building Materials Center, the home of the home and other home stores have entered the Hefei market.

This year, Jimei Home Beijing Yanjiao Store officially opened. According to media reports, Jimei Home said that including Yanjiao, Jimei Home will open four new stores this year. The former home of the “Hundred Stores Plan” has also publicly stated that by the end of this year, the number of stores in the home will increase from the existing 70 to nearly 100, and the target of the store will be 3 years ahead of schedule. carry out.

At the 2013 China Furniture Marketing and Design Conference Forum, Zhu Changling, Chairman of the China Furniture Association, calculated an account: Red Star Macalline currently has 118 stores nationwide, and there are actually 75 stores in the country. “If each store can reach 100,000 square meters, that is 20 million square meters."

Qin Zhanxue, executive vice president of China Building Materials Circulation Association, further told the “First Financial Daily” that the current building materials and home furnishing market is oversupplied, and some large and medium-sized cities have even seen two people maintaining a rent of 1 square meter of store rent, labor and profits.

The market is saturated and consumption is sluggish, which has led to a major drawback of home-selling stores – a single profit model based on rent collection. The business logic of “depending on the sky” is to maintain the high-speed development of real estate trains. However, when the growth rate of the real estate industry slows down and the terminal consumption is sluggish, it is prone to difficulties in rent recovery and capital chain breakage.

According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, in recent years, Red Star Macalline, Real Home, Oriental Home, JSWB, Yuexing Home and other stores have closed more than 20 stores, of which only the Oriental Homes closed 12 stores.

Coupled with the superposition of changes in the shape of the commercial housing, e-commerce impact and other factors, home stores have to embark on the road to transformation.

As the wind vane of the home building materials market, the wind and grass in the real estate industry will cause waves of downstream building materials.

Therefore, despite the recent sound of “returning the home industry”, the forthcoming Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee has added a lot of variables to this round of recovery.

Many industry insiders have called for a new batch of property tax pilot schemes to be different. Not only should the tax rate be increased, but also the scope of the expropriation should be expanded. Relevant experts also predict that the real estate regulation and adjustment will be expected to increase after the meeting.

But what is interesting is that the real estate control measures introduced by the country recently have become good news for the building materials home market. After the introduction of the “National Five Articles” in February 2013, the BHI index climbed all the way, rising rapidly from 77.90 in February to 115.91.

Qin Zhanxue analyzed the reporters, the building materials home market and the rigid demand of real estate are closely related. Regardless of regulation or control, it is necessary to see whether the rigid demand is increasing or decreasing. In order to judge whether the building materials are good or bad, “as long as the house price is expected to rise, the rigid demand will instead Will be released in advance to stimulate the development of the building materials home market."

However, he also said that the current overall environment is still building materials and home furnishing and overcapacity. In this context, short-term warming is only due to certain factors that stimulate housing prices, so that rigid demand is released ahead of time, not the market. Entered the track of benign development.

"If you want to really turn better, you have to wait until the balance between supply and demand." Qin Zhanxue concluded.

Business changes, the store is subject to test

Although the sales data of Red Star Macalline's National Day is very beautiful, during the long holiday, the reporter visited several large home stores and found that the situation is not as optimistic as it seems.

Take Jisheng Weibang International Furniture Village in Qingpu, Shanghai as an example. In this 450,000-square-meter home procurement direct sales center, the reporter saw that there are only a few consumers in the large home hall, and the shops with slightly higher floors and more remote locations. Even more people are interested.

The same situation also appeared in the stores of Yuexing home, scissors and stone cloth.

A furniture salesman at Yuexing Home told reporters that nowadays, the popularity is only good when the festival is discounted. Usually there are few people coming. "The sales performance has not increased compared with last year. The rent is rising every year. This year, the rent per square meter is rising. It’s 300 yuan/month,” the salesperson said.

“For the enterprise, the cost of the channel is obviously not satisfied. The products sold are equivalent to working for the 'landlord'. But from a strategic perspective, the home store is still one of the main sales channels, and Establishing a brand image has to enter the store, sometimes it is very helpless." The person said.

However, in recent years, the rapid development of hardcover houses and fully-packed houses seems to have made the home building materials brand find a new way out.

According to statistics, at present, hardcover houses account for nearly 20% of the national housing ratio. The proportion of hardcover houses in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai accounts for more than 40%, and Guangzhou even reaches 60%.

The engineering decoration business, which is opposite to it, is also receiving more and more attention from building materials manufacturers. Taking Shengxiang Group Co., Ltd. as an example, Chen Zhihua, general manager of the company's planning department, told reporters that the company's real estate decoration business grew at an annual rate of about 15%, and last year's sales reached 600 million yuan.

The full-loading room and hard-packing room mean that the home building materials brand can bypass the store and directly cooperate with real estate developers.

Shen Zhengyuan, a researcher in the circulation industry of China Investment Consulting, said that the real estate decoration business has gradually changed the distribution channels of home building materials. Most of the sales channels of household products have shifted from the home store to the real estate engineering market. Some of the stores are also obtained through bidding. The home parts of the hardcover room and the full house in the real estate.

In addition, the changes in the decoration of commercial housing have directly challenged the concept of “one-stop shopping” in home stores.

Compared with the rough house, consumers who purchase hardcover rooms and full-load houses have already completed most of the renovations, and the demand for household products is more fragmented and personalized, with selective or supplementary purchases as the mainstay.

"At this time, the super hypermarket will not be applicable. Perhaps the format of the building materials supermarket can meet the demand." Qin Zhanxue said.

There are indications that the era of home-based stores that rely on field rents to protect themselves from droughts and floods is gone.

Diversification attempt

“Going upstream” is becoming a common understanding of home stores.

Utilizing the circulation advantages accumulated in the industry for many years, looking for agents or manufacturers to carry out OEM production, and finally selling them in the store in the form of “own brand”, this is almost the law of all furniture to launch furniture and home brands.

Taking scissors stone cloth as an example, its home brand name is “Denyi overall soft decoration and imported furniture”, which is mainly engaged in the import of furniture brands, the sale of its own brand of curtain wallpapers and other home accessories.

In June 2012, JSWB tested the self-owned brand “Hoda” on the waterline. At present, HYD has laid out an independent B2C mall online, and opened two offline physical experience stores in Guangzhou.

In March of this year, Jinhaima Home also launched its own furniture brand “Family Family” to seize the plate furniture market.

Prospective Industry Research Institute analyst Ouyang Xinzhou told reporters that the home store in the past actually only provided a trading place, but it is out of touch with the market. The connection between manufacturers, dealers and consumers is also prone to the connection between the three sides. problem.

“If the store itself makes furniture brands, it reduces the circulation of the middle, and directly links R&D design, procurement, sales and market, which is beneficial to enhance its competitiveness.” Ouyang Xinzhou pointed out.

The practice of Red Star Macalline is to “extend down” and set up the “Home Times” decoration center to enter the downstream architectural decoration industry.

It is worth mentioning that an industry insider revealed that Red Star Macalline once removed the decoration company from its home store a few years ago. Until recently, the decoration industry has grown in size, especially after the transformation and upgrading of the company, and after the renovation, these decorative brands have re-entered. Red Star Macalline also opened a “renovation sink” on its official mall, claiming to gather “thousands of decoration”. Company, 10,000 designers."

If the upstream and downstream expansion of the industrial chain is relatively stable, then the practice of Yuexing Group and Red Star Macalline is more subversive. The former creates a “Global Harbor” shopping mall and enters commercial real estate. The latter develops a city complex, which is far from the original business.

In this regard, a local Shanghai furniture company told this newspaper that diversification from the essence of the industry will lead to a decline in the professionalism of the store and the loss of core competitiveness. "Diversification is too broad and easy to counterproductive."

å°´å°¬ "electric shock"

“E-commerce” is the most frequently mentioned vocabulary in the transformation and upgrading of home stores.

Compared to other industries, home is a post-knowledge for the network. But this evening episode did not go well.

Taking Red Star Macalline as an example, its e-commerce platform “Hongmei Mall”, which cost more than 100 million yuan, has experienced monthly sales of only 40,000 yuan, replacement of executives, and change of its name to “Xing Yi Jia”. Still no improvement.

Previously, for Alibaba's Chairman of the Board of Directors Ma Yun and Wanda Chairman Wang Jianlin, after 10 years, the e-commerce market share in the retail market can exceed 50% of the gambling bureau, Red Star Macalline Chairman Che Jianxin boldly "sell": After 10 years, e-commerce has a market share of more than 15% in the mid-to-high-end retail market, and is willing to lose to RMB 100 million each of Wang Jianlin and Ma Yun.

The e-commerce roads of Home Furnishings, JSWB and other home stores are still in their infancy, and the offline giants are still very weak on the Internet, and more home manufacturers are still waiting to see.

In the view of Jiang Xueshun, general manager of European products, unlike the industries where products can be standardized, the consumption in the home industry is often the impulse consumption formed by consumers after they experience products and services, and the offline experience is that e-commerce cannot replace of".

Secondly, the logistics distribution of large pieces of furniture is more difficult, the logistics cost is too high, and the unit price is very expensive.

But the huge online shopping market has made it impossible for home furnishing companies to give up this cake. According to China Industry Consulting Network research data, the scale of e-commerce in China's home furnishing industry is expected to reach 205 billion yuan in 2015.

"Experience and logistics problems are gradually being solved. This is not an obstacle, but a process. For the time being, for the home industry, do not pursue e-commerce at the starting line, but win at the finish line. "Qin Zhanxue said.

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