Plastic bottle raw material prices have a certain increase
The price of refined oil products rose significantly this month. In particular, diesel fuel has the largest increase in domestic energy products and has successfully reversed the decline that has lasted for several months. This is due to the fact that spring plowing has been initiated in various regions. The petrochemical provinces such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Liaoning have seen a significant recovery in operating rates since February, and consumer demand has apparently “revivedâ€, resulting in a significant increase in diesel sales volume on a sequential basis. On the other hand, international oil prices have increased. Rising, refined oil prices were supported by the cost, the two major groups carried out a wave after wave of vigorous price push action, but also coincided with the National Development and Reform Commission promptly raised prices, so that the price increase is even more severe.
Asphalt this month is also larger. As the recent construction of the project is gradually started, the demand for asphalt has improved, which has inhibited further declines in prices. At the same time, the asphalt resources in the northeast and northwest regions have remained tight, traders have been getting goods very difficult, prices have continued to be strong, and it has also become the main reason for the rise in asphalt prices.
Affected by sluggish demand, the coal market continued its downward trend in February and its decline continued to increase. Because domestic coal companies and power companies have not reached an agreement on contract coal prices, and the recent decline in international coal prices has caused domestic and international coal prices to hang upside down. This has led power companies to procure international coal, and domestic coal prices have been affected by imported coal. The sluggish iron and steel industry led to a weaker coal coke in the downturn and sluggish demand prices.
In summary, the domestic energy market has shown signs of recovery in March and the situation has gradually improved. After the review and approval of the petrochemical industry revitalization adjustment plan was passed, business confidence gradually increased, the operating rate rebounded, prices rebounded, and the market gradually became active. However, Chen Yunfei, an energy analyst at China National Chemical Network, believes that under the macroeconomic situation in which the global economy has yet to recover completely, it is difficult for oil prices to truly reverse the pattern of weakness and fear that the long-term bottom will fluctuate. The impact of the financial crisis on the domestic economy is not yet over, and energy demand remains Suffered many inhibitions. There are still many uncertainties in the energy market in the future.
Secondly, attention is paid to the chemical market. Looking at the list of chemical products in March, we can see that the overall trend of the chemical market in March continued the warm spring market in February. Among the 35 chemical products in the statistics, 15 trends rose, 10 The price went flat and there were 10 downsides. The “warm spring†in the chemical market in February was not a flash in the pan and there was a tendency to enter “Yangchun†from early spring. "Yangchun" market is concentrated in that some products continued to rise in February, and in March they continued to rise, and there were a few products in this trend.
There are two aspects of the chemical market this month:
1. Quotes continued to rise In March, among the 35 chemical products that were counted, 11 showed a continuation of the February rally and continued to climb. Of the 11 products, epichlorohydrin, crude benzene, hydrogen peroxide, and n-butanol performed the most attractively, because the two-month increase of the four products went above 10%. Taking epichlorohydrin as an example, epichlorohydrin was the runner-up in the list of gains in February, which rose by 30.7%. In March, he rose to the top of the gain list, a gain of 25.53%. Analysis of the reasons for its madness is mainly due to the rise in the price of an international crude oil and the continued upward movement of raw materials such as propylene and liquid chlorine, which has led to increased pressure on the cost of epichlorohydrin manufacturers, and manufacturers have repeatedly raised the factory prices. The price of epichlorohydrin in March rose from 8,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10,500 yuan/ton. The second reason is that the overall supply of society is limited, and the domestic production enterprises are in normal conditions. Tianjin Chemical Plant and Jiangsu Anbang Chemical Co., Ltd. have not drove vehicles since the end of the year, and Qilu Petrochemical began to stop and repair in the middle or late March. The tight supply of the current market, so the price is supported, rising again and again. However, in terms of actual downstream demand, resin companies generally have poor start-ups. At present, the prices of epichlorohydrin manufacturers are significantly higher than those of previous years. Shrinking, the market is worrying;
2. In the market, the market rose strongly in February, and in March the market turned downwards. The most typical are sulphur, phenol, glyphosate, polymeric MDI and paraformaldehyde. Taking the trend of sulfur as an example, after the Spring Festival, downstream stocking was active, triggering strong demand; on the policy front, the national favorable agricultural policy triggered good expectations for sulfur in the market; the sulfur upstream petrochemical companies continued to produce at the end of the year, and production was compressed and the supply was insufficient. The market has grown strongly under the condition that demand for insufficient supply is good. In early March, the rally continued. The domestic market continued to surge from about 800 yuan/ton, and reached the high level around 850 yuan/ton in the middle of the year. At this time, the international market's sulfur fall scope expanded from Vancouver to Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean region. At the same time, there were a large number of arrivals in Hong Kong in mid-to late March, which brought pressure to domestic manufacturers, increased inventories expectations, and price corrections. At the end of the month, the domestic market price was about 700 yuan/ton.
The chemical market in March seemed to be a blend of spring, but whether it is continuing the trend of rising epichlorohydrin, crude benzene, hydrogen peroxide, etc. in February, it is still a contrarian upward DOP, TDI, and the rising prices are all reflected in the price of raw materials. Promote, as well as artificial speculation. Gao Guofang, an analyst at China National Chemical Network, believes that in the spring of April in Yangchun in March, the chemical market is still flourishing. It is precisely that "Fangfei March is lively, and Mo Daochun is in trouble."
Lastly, we paid attention to the plastics market. General-purpose materials: This month, PE, led by the upstream, quickly rebounded, and the increase was mostly around 1,000 yuan/ton. The sharp rebound of upstream crude oil is the main factor. At the same time, due to the fact that all parties have low market inventories, traders follow the trend, and crude oil in the future is still optimistic. Therefore, traders also have confidence in buying goods. China Petroleum North China low-pressure inventory is low, low-voltage wire drawing and film material gains are large; China Eastern oil linear pricing sales, supply is not much; China Southern China maintains pricing sales, the market pulled up slightly; southwest region supply less, linear, high pressure continue to list, price rise. Compared with the beginning of the month, the increase was between 700-1500 yuan/ton. The overall turnover of low pressure was active and the price rose significantly. Mainly due to strained material resources; film material price is low, the recent pull in the two major petrochemicals attracted market attention; hollow and injection plastic with the early low-cost sources of digestion, the latter part of the cost gradually increased, and the current turnover of the box The production and production of pesticide bottles and beverage bottles gradually entered the demand season, so the focus on low-pressure hype and the market's enquiries were relatively concentrated.
The price of PP this month is stronger than that of PE, with an increase of around 18%. As petrochemicals continue to raise prices, prices continue to rise. Currently, there are few market resources, and there is a strong speculation and a good deal. In the domestic PP and PE market, the total inventory has gradually decreased since September 2008, with an average monthly decrease of 3.4%. The petrochemical inventories provided by the company’s recent report show that in the first half of March 2009, the total stocks of domestic PP and PE major markets kept declining, which was a decrease of 2.54% compared with February 28, 2009. Among which, PP stocks have decreased significantly, with a decrease of 4.18% from the end of last month.
The upward buoyant sentiment of the ABS market began to escalate in the East China and North China markets, but trading at high prices was limited. The gains in the South China market were slightly slower and the transactions were average.
In respect of engineering materials, the weak consolidation of the engineering plastics spot market in March was negligible. Compared with the previous month, the construction materials market has been divided into different trends, and the trend remains low. Only PA66 and PMMA rose slightly, and other products fell. Volume is comparable to last month. According to the China Engineering Plastics Industry Association, the demand for engineering plastics in China will be greatly reduced starting from the beginning of 2009 and is expected to be between 10% and 15%. It is expected that the sales volume will be about 2 million tons this year, and the growth rate will be reduced to 10 %about.
Taken together, this month's plastic market was unexpectedly affected by rising raw materials, and there were clear traces of market speculation. The recent failure of production equipment by petrochemical manufacturers caused widespread enthusiasm in market speculation. The Shanghai Secco naphtha cracker with a capacity of 900,000 tons per year was unexpectedly shut down on March 8. Formosa's No. 1 naphtha cracker with a capacity of 600,000 tons per year exploded recently. Naphtha cracker unexpected strike, which caused shortage of supply in the area of ​​delivery to the end of March, the enthusiasm of the market to buy cargo at the end of March was boosted, and speculation in the market speculation enthusiasm. Xue Jinlei, a plastics analyst at China Chemical Network, believes that speculative speculation has become a pusher in the short term, while stabilizing crude oil has provided support for maintaining price increases.
Looking at the three major lists and the market conditions of energy, chemicals, and plastics in March, as the author (Business Manager, China Chemical Network Information Editor Liu Xintian) predicted at the end of February, the two conferences have welcomed Xiao Yangchun after the meeting. The industry is no exception.
The author observes the March market and there are two key words worth noting:
“Dip-huntingâ€â€”mainly originated from the hot strategic reserves of petroleum and strategic reserve of methanol energy. The country is storing low-priced crude oil, causing many downstream traders who are optimistic about the market to start selling goods, so as to make a good job. The author thinks that this is not a proper move. Many companies engaged in sulphur at the end of January and February went back to the roller coaster in March. It can be seen that the non-financial crisis and the world economy are fundamentally reversed; otherwise, the impulse on the market is limited;
“Starting rate†— According to China Chemical Network, many companies’ operating rates have increased in the middle and late March, and many companies that are about to collapse have “revivedâ€, such as Shandong refining, coking benzene, and methanol. On the one hand, it shows that market warming has encouraged business confidence. On the other hand, it means that the market supply and demand will change – the originally weakened supply side will probably be stronger, and whether the demand side can support is not yet known.
Looking ahead, the author is cautiously optimistic. Influenced by many factors such as international and policy, the market demand will gradually activate, and the Yangchun market is expected to continue. However, the gradual increase in crude oil will inevitably increase the production cost of petrochemical chemical products. If the downstream product prices cannot rise in time, the production and distribution companies will face costs. The embarrassing situation of increasing profits and reducing profits may be a manifestation of the "variation" of the financial crisis in the petrochemical industry. Starting from a rational point of view and actively responding to a pessimistic market with an optimistic attitude is what a sensible company does.
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