The market demand gap in the waste paper industry has intensified. Raw materials have become a key factor in the industry.
1. The import waste paper policy is becoming stricter, and raw materials have become the key factor in the industry.
In April 2018, the four ministries and commissions adjusted the Catalogue of Imported Waste Management to change four types of 24 solid wastes, including waste plastics from household sources, unsorted waste paper and waste textile raw materials, from restricted imports to banned imports. . Before the end of 2019, China will gradually phase out the import of solid waste that can be replaced by domestic resources. At the same time, the recycling standards, scale and quality will be further enhanced under market demand.
The waste paper import policy promotes new changes in the paper industry. The core logic is derived from supply-side reforms to raw materials: in 2017, the marginal change of the industry occurred at the raw material end. As the import waste paper policy became stricter, on the one hand, the country’s waste price soared, On the one hand, the demand for wood pulp is tight due to the substitution effect, and the importance of raw materials in the industry is highlighted. For the environmental protection continued to limit the new capacity, the industry supply and demand status continues to be tight, with the gradual overweight of waste paper import policy since the second half of 2017, raw materials have become a key factor in the industry: due to waste paper new policies and environmental restrictions, the industry raw materials end Variety.
On August 23, 2018, Hangzhou Customs was subordinated to Huzhou Customs to return a batch of excess waste paper with a total amount of 123.71 tons. This batch of waste paper imported from the United States has a total of 10 TEUs. The inspection does not meet the relevant environmental protection control standards for solid wastes in China, and the entrained materials exceed the standard. The Customs will return the goods according to law. The volume of foreign waste imports has declined, and it cannot be supplemented by increasing the amount of waste recycling in the country. The waste paper raw materials are tight.
2. Statistical analysis of the total production of paper and paperboard in China in 2017
In 2017, there were about 2,800 paper and paperboard manufacturers in the country. In 2010, the national paper and board production was only 97.2 million tons. In 2012, the national paper and board production exceeded 100 million tons. As of 2017, the national paper and board production volume was 111.3 million tons, an increase of 2.53% over the previous year.
National paper and board production statistics for 2010-2017
Statistical Analysis of China's Waste Paper Imports in March and September
According to the statistics of the “Forecasting and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report of Waste Paper Recycling Industry†issued by Prospective Industry Research Institute, the volume of China's waste paper imports declined in 2015-2017, and China's waste paper imports in 2017 were 25.72 million tons. It was down 9.8% year-on-year. In September 2018, China's waste paper imports were 1.6 million tons, down 23.6% year-on-year. From January to September 2018, China's waste paper imports were 11.53 million tons, down 46.8% year-on-year.
In terms of import value, China's waste paper import volume showed a downward trend from 2013 to 2016. In 2016, China's waste paper import value was 4,989 million US dollars, down 5.6% year-on-year. In 2017, China's waste paper imports increased. In September 2018, China's waste paper imports amounted to 418.7 million US dollars, down 19.6% year-on-year. From January to September 2018, China's waste paper imports amounted to 2750.7 million US dollars, down 44.4% year-on-year.
China's waste paper import statistics and growth from January to September 2018
4. Statistical analysis of national paper and board consumption in 2017
In 2017, the national paper and paperboard consumption was 108.97 million tons, an increase of 4.59% over the previous year, and the per capita annual consumption was 78 kg (1.39 billion people). From 2008 to 2017, the annual growth rate of paper and board production was 3.77%, and the average annual growth rate of consumption was 3.59%.
5. Statistics on national paper and board consumption in 2010-2017
The main direction of the pulp industry structure adjustment is from waste paper pulp papermaking to wood pulp papermaking, and the plant fiber extraction is gradually converted to wood fiber papermaking. In 2017, the amount of wood pulp used for the production of boxboard paper was 2.8 million tons. In 2016, an increase of 1.4 million tons, paper companies replaced some wood pulp due to the shortage of waste paper, the demand for wood pulp increased, so the prices of waste paper and wood pulp raw materials both rose.
6. The prices of all kinds of packaging paper products continue to fluctuate downward.
From the end of May 2018 to the present, the prices of all kinds of packaging paper products have continued to fluctuate downwards. Taking the main raw material corrugated paper for cardboard boxes as an example, the price has dropped from 5100/ton at the end of May to the current 4000/ton, a drop of nearly 22%. The price of cardboard paper fell from 5,600/ton to 4,300/ton, a drop of 23%.
The price of finished paper fell, and the price of waste paper fell. The price of first-grade used cardboard paper dropped from 3,200/ton at the end of May to the current 2,200/ton, a drop of more than 30%.
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